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Technology Stocks : Read-Rite

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To: Sam who wrote (3714)	7/16/1998 7:47:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) of 5058

Sam, <<But of course, this one IS the worst. Nonsense. But it is surely true that not every company will make it to see better days. As in all downturns. Just don't ask me which ones (other than APM, it would appear, and STMD, and possibly even the venerable KMAG).>> I could not agree more but we can say we have not seen this protracted a recovery in the DD sector before. FWIW I no longer think of Komag as "venerable" (as I am sure you don't). They simply are not the same company they were when I was competing with them years ago and they were the technical leader well on their way to establishing the leading independent thin-film media supplier position. Its a bit sad really. I have many old friends and adversaries that poured their passions into that company and I think Steve Johnson is one of the few really top drawer people around. I think I mentioned before that Komag is my most productive investment ever. Sheer lucky happenstance caused me to liquidate Komag near their high after riding their halcyon days of 1995. They looked incredibly unbeatable then. A lesson in here somewhere. By the way. I would add Read-Rite to your list of "endangered species". These are very critical times for RDRT and I believe the course of events could develop in any direction for them. The new wrinkle that gives me even further pause on RDRT is recent reports of improved yields at QNTM's head mfg and Seagate's head mfg plants. While it is true that Seagate has announced intentions to increase outside head supply reliance one cannot view that as any long term assurance of available market. I still stick to my earlier contentions that vertical integration is a necessity for long term DD players which is why I believe indy component suppliers will continue to be buffeted by a capricious industry and one reason I believe that Maxtor's IPO is a real dog.

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