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Non-Tech : Any info about Iomega (IOM)?

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To: Mel Boreham who wrote (57244)7/16/1998 7:53:00 PM
From: Lance Tokuda  Read Replies (1) of 58324
 
Iomega Conference Call Impressions

Iomega announced a loss within expectations so the major
bad news was the 2% decline in quarter over quarter
revenue. Given that decline, this was about the best
conference call I could have hoped for:

* 44% increase in disk unit sales and 35% for drives.
Zip disks are really flying off the shelves like
s.bateh has been saying all along. It seemed like
Ingram was selling tons of disks then Iomega
pre-announced a loss and all of s.bateh's numbers
were pretty worthless. Well they weren't so
please keep posting them! Some were arguing that
sales versus last year were flat -- they were way
way off. The razor-blade model has actually appeared.

* Ditto has been declining for quite a while and
Jazz is suffering now too because of Syquest.
This is okay with me. Syquest has trashed their
own stock price selling their drives at a loss
to gain revenue and market share. It is very
tough to compete with someone that is willing
to lose money on every sale. In the vcall, it
was stated that Iomega would not be selling drives
at negative margins for the sake of the stockholders.
Thanks Jim! The upside is that Syquest is really
competing for the high end storage market. Zip
had it's best quarter in company history.

* Compared to previous conference calls, this one
was from a totally different company. There were
a lot more numbers for analysts to work with so
even I could put together a spreadsheet to make
predictions on what kind of financials to expect
in future quarters. They expect $50M in cost
reductions for the second half of the year. The
management stressed their commitment to returning
to profitability and I believe them since they are
being paid in stock.

* One interesting fact is that preliminary indications
are that there is no significant difference between
OEM and aftermarket tie rates. Good news for the
razor-blade model.

* Channel inventory was down for Jazz and Zip (9wks
to 6.5wks for zip).

* There was a 30-40% decline in drive return rates
which shows that quality control efforts are
working. Relations with Dell and Compaq are good.

I can honestly say that I had doubts about whether Iomega
could recover. Based on this call, I am now willing to
wait for Q4 results. Iomega promised profitability and
I think they can deliver. I would expect the stock to
go down tomorrow based on the -2% revenue number but I
think the stock will be much higher at the end of Q4.

Lance
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