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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)
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To: Steve Fancy who wrote (4881)7/16/1998 9:29:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton  Read Replies (1) of 6136
 
PI IMS data for June,

I don't have time to enter the data, but it looks like Viracept continues to gain market share (31.8% 6/98 vs 31.3% 5/98). Crixivan continues to lose share (33.6% 6/98 vs 33.9% 5/98).

The PI market looks like it may be taking a hit from all the publicity (and concerns) over the lipid disorders. On an adjusted basis, it was down 4.1% from May. It's hard to extrapolate, since there's noise in the month to month numbers. It's not atypical for the PI market to soften for several months with the publication of major studies that raise concerns. The PI market appeared to flatten last fall around ICAAC and the issues of resistance and adherence.

In any event, 6/98 scrips were up 28% on a year to year basis from 6/97 (156,820 6/98 vs 122,122 6/97).

It's hard to tell what conclusions to draw from these numbers (except that Viracept continues to do well against the current competitors in the PI class). IMO, it will be important to watch scrip data in the next several months, and once again when Sustiva is launched to get a sense of the impact on the PI market. I suspect we'll have a dampening initially, but the effect may not persist for more than a couple of months. Too early to tell on long run implications.

Peter

p.s., in any event, Viracept continues to emerge as the gold standard PI
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