Hi, Rob BC. Given the word on progress toward releasing financials, I do not see Scenario 1 as likely. They used to trade in Australia and may still do so. However, lack of financials would probably hurt them there, too, if that is what gets them delisted from Vancouver. Please note again that I do *not* see this scenario occurring.
Antares might indeed take over SPE. If SPE gets the loan from Standard Bank, I doubt ANZ will get control. If SPE fails to get the loan, then it will probably run out of money again, at which point ANZ might do a takeover. I believe we would all be given the right to get ANZ shares or cash, but the price would likely be much lower than C$.24.
Scenario 3 is a mix of likely and unlikely. I believe there is a high likelihood (unless SPE manages its news well) that there will be some people aggressively selling at any price right after trading resumes. We could see a substantial spike downwards. However, just because a company's stock price takes a dive, that does not mean that the company will close. It only affects the company if the company needs financing. So Scenario 3 without the closure looks the most likely to me. Further, I don't think the downward spike will turn into a long-term decline. That would only occur if the SB loan or similar financing falls through, and I have not seen any reason to believe it will.
Scenario 4 might occur, although with a moderate rise to perhaps $.60 or a bit more. This would depend on SPE being able to release the news that they have obtained the loan in a news release issued just before trading resumes. I don't think they will be able to put the loan to bed by then, though. We'll see.
I hope this helps.
Steve |
