Tero, you really are in the hotseat! Lucky for you, it is from a very safe position in Nokia, so you are well-armed.
But here is some comment on that:
Message 5222762
Meanwhile, I'll just try to cover the bits others haven't already from your comments. Nokia sure has done well. You haven't seen rapid profit growth by Qualcomm because it is only this year that they have really got going. Until now, all income was going on R&D. Omnitracs and equity provided the money. All used up on getting cdmaOne chips to work.
Check out Qualcomm's revenue growth - you will see something spectacular there. It is only this year that they really got selling the stuff they've been trying to get going since 1986 = CDMA.
There is not really a disadvantage in entering the digital phone market half a decade after GSM. In some ways it makes things easier - since everyone is used to and wants cellphones. Just step up and offer the better gadget and they'll be buying.
GSM is a European standard in the sense that Europe is GSM only. I don't think anyone means only European companies can supply equipment or that it is only used in Europe.
How will cdmaOne attack entrenched competition in China? Easy - same as anything else. You talk to the customer and offer them a better deal. They say "Okay, thanks". Simple. There are cdmaOne systems built in China now with more going in.
In Australia, Telestra was reported as replacing their GSM. Yes, Optus might try to offer GSM competition. Not much chance of success though. All they can really do is milk their cow until it gets too old and hopeless. You can bet NZ will have cdmaOne next year.
I disagree with those who disparage battery life and phone size and weight as being unimportant. I agree with you - we are a kaleidoscope of customers. To me, battery life is vital. Even if people put it on the charger every night, that doesn't help them if they go away for a week and stay in a log cabin. And small is good. For most people. Especially women and children. Some people like big, waterproof, brute phones which float.
Tero, I agree that Nokia GSM handsets are great. But you still have to buy the GSM service too. Subscribers want an overall good deal. The best will be a Nokia handset, designed to the quality of the GSM ones, but using cdmaOne and maybe a Qualcomm ASIC if Nokia can't keep up. You pointed out that Nokia has good funding from their sales to develop more handsets. Don't forget that every cdmaOne handset Nokia sells gives funding to Qualcomm and that is good for more development by Qualcomm.
You make a good case that there really is a marketing race on and GSM has the lead in handsets. But with the albatross of GSM hanging on these excellent handsets, the long run seems to me to be full of cdmaOne. How quick the change will be will depend in part on how quick Nokia is to increase it's market share in cdmaOne handsets. No skin off Nokia's nose if cmdaOne takes over and Motorola and Ericsson don't have a handset in sight. No skin off Qualcomm's nose if Nokia wipes the Samsung, Sony and 23 other cdmaOne handset licensees - they [me] still get the royalties and infrastructure sales.
You know, 4m Finns and 4m Kiwis have a bit in common!
Maurice |
