<< If they do we can expect about 10x price appreciation in the next few years. >>
I might sell tomorrow! I was hoping for at least 11x in the next few years. <g>
$5.25? Nice price! Did you have a GTC order in, for $5.25, or were you watching the ticker, at the time of the order?
It's all a numbers game. 95,000 possible patients per year. About 5,000 per year, at today's expenses, needed to pay for entire business, not counting Epicel revenues. About 800 Carticel procedures were performed in the trailing four quarters.
===> Assuming 20 million shares.
If 10,000 (10%) per year: ~$30 million profit, or about $1.50 per share.
If 20,000 (20%) per year: $90 million profit, or about $4.50 per share.
At 20x earnings, $1.50 per share is a share price of $30
At 20x earnings, $4.50 per share is a share price of $90
At 30x earnings, $1.50 per share is a share price of $45
At 30x earnings, $4.50 per share is a share price of $135
The bottom line: How many of the 95,000 can GENZL reasonably expect to need the Carticel procedure??? And..... How long will it take?
These guestimates are based on GENZL maintaining the $10,000 price tag for Carticel, which could become lower as they reach profitability, a 40% tax rate, and $50 million in expenses. They also don't include the rest of GENZL's products/pipeline. Rough, rough, rough estimates.
This also assumes lack of significant competition for Carticel, or any other problems that may, or may not, develop.
It would be great if one of the members of SI, with a background in Orthopedics, would comment on whether 95,000 is a realistic number of annual femur injuries, and how many could be eligible for Carticel.
Andreas, any thoughts? (Sorry about the long note. I start thinking out loud, and get carried away).
Regards, Bob |
