holy cow! did you guys read this article?!
/* the bull case for AGPH, according to WSJ
- some investors and analysts contend the worries are overblown
when it comes to diminished prospects for Agouron Pharmaceuticals
- analysts at several Wall Street securities
firms say the stock could hit 45 in the next 12 months
- Agouron's opportunity to capture new patients . . . is
greater than that of any other protease-inhibitor maker in the U.S.,"
says Anthony Butler, a Lehman Brothers analyst
- AIDS activists and physicians say that Agouron's Viracept, in
particular, isn't as vulnerable as the early reports suggested
- "Many patients will likely be on both protease inhibitors and Sustiva
at various points in their treatment," Mr. Cox says, cautioning that
enthusiasm over the DuPont drug is based on relatively limited
experience compared to Viracept.
- Dr. Howard Grossman, who has one of Manhattan's largest AIDS
practices and who currently is involved in Sustiva clinical trials,
notes that an ongoing "combination study" of Sustiva with
Agouron's Viracept show the blend "is really well tolerated" by his
small test group. And of existing protease inhibitors, Viracept is often
"the best tolerated" by patients and has the advantage of requiring
fewer daily dosages than a leading competitor made by pharamaceutical
powerhouse Merck
- Bulls also maintain that Agouron's push into Europe will help boost
revenue, as well
- the company's stock-market value represents barely twice its
revenue, "which is absurd," says Douglas Lind, a Morgan Stanley Dean
Witter analyst. He praises the small company for "exceeding clinical and
commercial expectations in becoming the dominant" protease-inhibitor
maker.
- Bulls also praise the company for recently licensing three new
potential AIDS treatments. (Agouron also is in early testing of a cancer
therapy.)
- Those costs could drive the independent-and-proud-of-it company into
the arms of a bigger company, some analysts say. Ironically, they think
Agouron would be an ideal acquisition for DuPont, which is expanding its
life-sciences operations. Neither company would comment.
/* with all that the company has going for them, the shorts must have some powerful arguments for driving the stock to its knees, and then some ...
- bears contend that those new treatments all signal big
research-and-development costs that will hurt the bottom line in the
near term
/* duh! welcome to drug development. hey, wait, is that all you guys have to say???
hmmmm .... suppose 10M of the 30M shares outstanding were sold short, 20 days to cover .... wonder what would happen if market sentiment changed and folks started putting buy orders in. nah, never'll happen ... : ) |
