ahhaha, even simpler than that,the stock price is only based on supply and demand.The only time insider sales matter is when the management sells en mass,not outsiders with positions.
I am only looking at supply/demand,future expectations mean nothing if supply is doubling. Then expectations get swamped by supply,and demand loses.
Well I have a different view,if you take stocks that are severely depressed,then the risk is minimal,and the upside chance is increased.Take a look at another position of mine,ANAD,it was depressed,makes RF GAAS IC's for cable modems,and fiber optics. It was depressed due to cell phones,and Asia. Well the earnings stunk,the margins were squeezed,and revenues were down. So why the big rally? Well its perceptions and demand,thats all.
The internet is a great way to find out the emotional underpinnings to a stock.
On to HLIT,you may have to eat your words next week,DWDM was hot a year ago,with great perceptions. No one besides HLIT has installed MetroDWDM for anyone,they are alone. The perceptions are negative on HLIT,the estimate is zero earnings,we will see. They have a small float,will demand swamp supply?
What you are telling me is that fundamentals mean nothing,yes true in a mania on the upside. Fundamentals tell you where a bottom is in a stock,and where there is little risk. ANAD was selling at 1x sales,2x book,not much downside risk if they can grow revs and have a good market position for the future.
ahhaha, every thing is just supply and demand,nothing more.
Hiram |
