Havana Republic (HVAR) Message Board

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Non-Tech : Havana Republic (HVAR)

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To: sneakypete who wrote (17)	7/17/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: TAPR	Read Replies (1) of 686

You guys can talk smoke all you want but I just want to talk technicals. On Mon (H22, L18, C195) we put in a 9bar count bearish divergence from the rally off the bottom at 15 on 7/7. When we were unable to hold at the 18 support, another slide to the bottom took the momentum. Yesterday the momentum turned back up and if TODAY selling at 15 does not materialize and 16 sells slow in the morning and buying at 17 continues we could expect to end to day up at 18 and have positive MO back. We would also see a breakout of the downtrend line from Mon22. And if this occurs early in the afternoon, we might even get a pop on volume back up to the 22 level. We still have good indicators that HVAR is bottoming now. MCAD has issued it's short term buy signal and has not reversed on the weakness of the past 4 days. The Candelstick Doji that marked yesterday indicates that we could pivot off yesterday. Volitility has dropped (yesterday afternoon and this morning) and could be expected to pick up as the choppiness of the bottom continues. If buyers are attracted to the stock, over the next five days we should look for a rally back up to test resistance @.25. Since it is not possible to determine if there are large block holders looking to continue selling it is probably best to assume they will not continue to sell at this level in the cycle. HVAR has been to this level 3 times now and has always rallied from here. (90 some % of triple bottoming stocks do) It is hard to pick a bottom. I personally bought at 35, 25, 22, and 18. I do not believe a lower level will show up but if I can buy at 15 I will. This afternoon will probably tell us if we are going to churn at this level for a few days or wether the rally is back on. There is one bearish resistance that must be overcome and that is the NOT OVERSOLD CONDITION on the weekly chart. We may have to trade side ways for a few days before the next move up. It looks like we can still hold to a upside target of .38 and lowside of .30 buy the end of next week. If the market evaluation mirrored that of some who deface the trading opportunity then we will see the stock under 15 before Tuesday. If the market evaluates the stock positively, significant upside moves are possible. Right now the DOJI reigns. But this will not last for long (<4DAYS)and will most likely end today or MON. Closing above 17 will put us bullish again. Good Luck Tracking and Trading TA person

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