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To: James S. Anderson who wrote (166)	7/17/1998 1:57:00 PM
From: Herschel Rubin	Read Replies (1) of 201

I have been doing further comparison between the 1996 semiconductor slump and the current slowdown and it is very interesting to see that the following similarities existed just before the upturn in August-September 1996: 1. Slump in semi sales - things began to look ugly. 2. Semi companies had just announced layoffs. 3. Semi companies were all saying they have "no clear picture of when a turnaround will be." Following is a link + text of a post (to the "SI Semi Equip Thread) from a guy who expressed precisely the same sentiment on August 28, 1996. Ironically, his post marked the bottom of the cycle and the bottom for stocks. Refer to the link to "BigCharts" for a 3-Year chart of AMAT showing that the end of August 1996 was indeed the bottom (preceeding a 400% rise in the following 12 months)! Interesting correlation -- makes me think that layoffs in the semi industry may be final indicators of a turnaround because companies become leaner after trimming out "dead wood" and thus quickly return to profitability as soon as order flow improves. ____________________________________________________________________ Bigcharts 3-Year chart of AMAT (you may have to paste this URL into your browser): chart5.bigcharts.com us&symb=amat&time=10&sid=614&sec=c&xyz=54848844&s=19621 www3.techstocks.com To: Cary Salsberg (505 ) From: Ramsey Su Wednesday, Aug 28 1996 9:21AM ET Reply # of 6310 Cary, recent developments are really ugly for this industry. Trying to be objective, I look for positives but really can't find any. What troubles me the most now is the fact that the companies are sending a clear message - WE DON'T HAVE A CLUE WHEN BUSINESS WILL BE GOOD AGAIN. AMAT is backing up that message with layoffs. Look at KLIC's recent PRs, terrible. Now LAM is laying off. Labor transition cost is extremely high. If these companies see any glimpse of hope within the next 3 to 6 months, I am sure they will hang on to trained labor, even if they just sit and chat all day. If it is just the temps, it is a different story but both AMAT and LAM are cutting into the core. I am still very confident that this group will make us a lot of money one day. The timing now may be 1998 or later. Ramsey ___________________________________________________________________

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