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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Salah Mohamed who wrote (5640)12/6/1996 11:43:00 PM
From: E_K_S   of 42771
 
Hi Salah - Good report. Here is my question...What effect does the site license revenue affect channel inventory? Remember, Novell has been trying to convert more than 40% of its revenues to site license income. IMO then this income would supplement any reported channel revenue? Right? As I understand it, site license revenue is supposed to be growing as a percentage of total revenue and is not calculated in the channel loop. Therefore, some of the analysts may not understand this revenue source as measured by "normal" channel revenue?

Remember one 'large' user might obtain a site license from Novell for many machines but only obtain one channel copy. According to the channel report, one copy was sold BUT according to the site license administrator their may have been 100 copies sold. The analyst might see this as 'stuffing' the channels but in fact they are true sales of 'licensed' copies.

If we know how site license revenue is reported and how it impacts the channel inventory report (if at all) then we can better determine if there was 'stuffing' of the channel. I think the Morgan Stanley analyst did not account for the increased site license revenue.
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I was trying to download the November insider trading activity but apparently my machine does not have the horsepower to get the download. I wanted to check any NOVELL insider 'Buy' or 'Sells' for the month of November. I checked the weekly December numbers and there were no tranactions. This may give us a clue as to who is buying and selling.

!! CAN SOMEONE CHECK THESE NUMBERS !! The site link is as follows:

insidertrader.com

Go to the section for November 1996 transactions and download an alphabetical sort. Then check for any Novell activity. Please post your results. When I tried it, my machine got 99% of the download and just hung and the disk drive continued processing?????

We want to check "WHO was the buyer of the 12 million shares traded" in November AND if it was a large institution???? My guess is Goldman Sacs as they are the institutional broker for Novell. Maybe the Institutional broker for Intel was buying? Who does Intel use? <Morgan Stanely ..ug!>

Also check to see if any large block trades were done for Intel as this may be a precurser to 'positive' or 'negative' impact on any NOVELL buyout.

Look forward to your (or anybody's) results...

EKS
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