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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (29947)7/17/1998 7:44:00 PM
From: Diamond Jim  Read Replies (2) of 132070
 
To: Investor2 (6064 )
From: marc wakefield
Friday, Jul 17 1998 6:42PM ET
Reply # of 6076

i2, re:sentiment. I got the information from Wall Street Week. A couple of
times over the last few years they put up graphics showing major bull and
bear runs compared to sentiment demonstrating that the letter writers in the II
survey were generally completely wrong at major turning points. Last time it
was on I recognized the graphic they were putting up and copied the
information. They must have shown bulls, bears and correction people
because I calculated and saved the Bull/(bull+bear) number with the
magnitude of the moves that followed for 8 episodes it showed since 1963.
However from the information I don't know how many times sentiment got to
extremes and just worked itself off with just a minor correction as we have
seen most recently or how much money you would have left on or off the table
moving prematurely in a case where sentiment remained extreme for a long
time before a major market move actually occurred. This is obviously why in a
good successful model like Bob's many factors are taken into account in
varying degrees of importance, a very difficult task that few have been
successful at over time. I guess if someone's interested they can contact
Investors Intelligence to see what type of back information is available. By the
way when Garzarelli gave her famous sell signal I believe Michael Burke the
publisher of II was also bearish though maybe someone can confirm that

Marc
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