Bill:
Nice to converse on a more civilized board.
I have given up talking with management. It's the same old stroke job that you get from any of these companies. They never really talk the truth and always seem to just "glide by" the signficant issues. If you have ever been to a company meeting, you will undertand. Steve Chubb stands there, and in a very gentlemanly manner, says nothing. Actually, several years ago, he managed to tick off one of the analysts at the meeting by refusing to respond to a very rudimentary question about future earnings. When the person pressed the issue somewhat, he (Chubb) changed to subject. He tries to be very smooth about the things, but after a while, you begin to catch on.
Another problem is that I am not really sure he understands the science or, more importantly, the statistical analyses that goes into the studies. This was painfully obvious when,during the NUMA fiasco, he tried, during a conference call, to explain what went wrong. If he had a clue, he sure didn't show it. He stumbled, fumfered (I think thats a word) and just plain couldn't give a solid answer. Pretty pitiful.
My feelings about the science have changed somewhat, as of late. As concerns the NMP22 test, it is obviously not going to cut it as a stand alone test. The company has finally realized, I think, that urologists are surgeons and surgeons do procedures to make money. A good follow-up urinary test is not what these guys want to see. Is it any wonder that none of the studies published and/or discussed in the Journal of Urology (edited by urologists, read that surgeons) have been met with critical acclaim.
The test will probably wind up being somewhat useful (as concerns follow-up of diaganosed patients) as a test that might allow patients to either extend the period between cystoscopic procedures and/or eliminate some of them from being done in the first place. The real money for this test will be if it is approved for screening in this country, as it has been in Japan. That's the Holy Grail of laboratory testing and if that happens, get out of the way! What are the chances of that happening. Probably fifty/fifty, but certainly not much better than that. The sensitivity has to improve towards the 95 to 100 percent level for low grade tumor detection for the FDA to approve and I just haven't seen data that support such a claim (If you are reading this Steve, and I'm wrong, please let us all know).
As concerns any of the companies other products, my previous post and comments therin, still hold. I think I am at a point, unfortunately, where I just don't believe what the company is telling us, informally, at meetings and during E mails and telophone calls. SHOW ME HARD DATA. PUBLISH IT! That's really what people want to see. Its all proprietary so the company doesn't have to worry about anybody stealing their secrets. In any event, as I have also previously stated, it doesn't appear that anybody is breaking down the doors of the company to reach Mr. Chubb to tell him they are in love with the technology!. IF ITS REAL, PUBLISH IT. PERIOD.
As concerns Leslie Tissot, the long gone financial person, I really believe this was a non-event. Nice person, probably a lousy CFO. She was pushed out. I don't believe she left of her own volition.
So theres the short take on a very bid problem. I have been buying the stock for five years and own a large chunk of common at under four dollars. Obviously, I'm hanging on. I do feel sorry, however, for the poor folks who got sucked in at much higher prices. The key to biotech is to COMMIT TO IT IF YOU BELIEVE THE STORY AND KEEP BUYING WHEN NO ONE ELSE WANTS IT. Therefore, I should really be buying like crazy now. For the first tiime, however, at these prices, I haven't bought. Unfortunately, I'm getting a little skittish because I don't trust the company as I used to. Apparently, others don't either.
The bottom line is this: at two dollars a share why wouldn't any insider buy this stock if the story is still in place. You gotta think an awful lot about that question. I'm really bothered by that.
Hope this helps.
topvest |
