OK, so what we know is that they can't pour the class V because they allegedly can't find an available rig, but no one on this thread really believes that right? They have a terrible track record in closing deals and thus, this news today was ignored/scoffed at/laughed at. (Believe me, I would have to see BUFF shares appear in my account before I ever believe it is for real. A confirmation phone call from Artie Levitt of the SEC and Mary Shapiro of the NASD would help as well.) Hundreds of thousands of dollars of Class V revenue are going down SOME OTHER HOLE and they continue to delay, delay, delay.
Nevertheless, I continue to remain long in this stock. Here are my reasons, and they are honest to the point that I make these statements swearing on the lives of my children. I will not swear that the reasons won't change but if they do, you will know.
1. I do not believe this management can ever pull it off in the short run. However, some day, they may, repeat may, become imbued with some phenomenal ability to stumble into success. The most likely scenario of pulling this off is by selling the Class V well or the AdHatters operation or the whole friggin company to industry leaders in those respective fields, e.g., BFI, Waste Management, Proctor & Gamble, etc. At this point in time, that is what I am betting on. A far less likely scenario is that they may acquire the ability to actually pull this off themselves, though at this point I would say they have two chances of doing that...and slim is out of town.
2. Assuming they are half way competent and at least able to consummate the merger with BUFF or some other reporting company someday, they may actually attract some interest from a fund(off shore most likely) that would put some bucks into the company. That infusion would see us take off from our current levels.
3. While waiting for the above to occur, I now must hope that the stock gets further hammered and then I will hold my nose and average down in a big way. If that happens, the pop from 1. or 2. above could bring me back to a break even or slightly profitable position. I will not liquidate NOW betting on this to happen because, for all I know, 1. or 2. could, repeat could, occur BEFORE the stock has a chance to come down to the teen or sub teen level. I would hate to be on the sidelines then. Remember, when there was nothing here, repeat nothing, the stock held in the teens and twenties.
4. My downside risk is minimal here, so I don't believe now is the time to sell. More to the point, my downside risk is actually 0 at this point. And I make that statement for 7, 11 , or 13 reasons...not sure exactly.( The sharp ones among you will know what that last sentence means...CHAPTER and verse).
In the meantime, lest there be no misunderstanding here, I must and will treat this stock as the cheapest trollup in a Tijuana, Alongapo, or Saigon bar. I will BTS it, take profits at any point, buy on a major tank or on dips following sells. I have shares from the 30s all the way to $2.12 and have no intention of selling any of those shares at Schedule D losses, so I plan to be around for a long time.
TG
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