Hi Tom,
With me figuring out real earnings in the same, straight forward way I have for 2 years, I get .67 for this q, the additional .17 being the 425 million not booked as revenue. I also add .56 per share not booked for the full year, which jumps the year to ~ 2.30; trailing pe becomes 51.
1 warning sign, if you can call it that. The amount deferred failed to grow for the first time: it was 425 mill last q, too.
I think this is a red herring. It will explode next q 'cause of win 98, and our boys in Redmond know it. Considering the enormously high pe as printed in the newspapers, and the fact that reviews are being done now so they usually try to talk the stock down, they were much less negative than normal.
My guess is e of 2.25 shown for the next year, actual e of 2.95, stock price of 145 is probable, at some point during the year. |
