Paul,
In Q397, there were ~17M Li-ion cells shipped. 42% went to notebooks, 43% to cellular (+ another 5% to PCS/PHS). Only 7% went to the camcorder market. The market for lithium rechargeables last year was driven primarily by the switch from NiMH in the notebook and cell phones.
While 7% is a sizeable piece of the market, looking at data for the previous 6 quarters, the volume shipped did not grow appreciably in the camcorder space. The growth rates in the notebook & cellular markets are slowing (due to market penetration), and the industry is looking for the "third application". It is not camcorders, and I don't believe they have found it yet.
There is a decent possibility it will turn out to be a small UPS, built into desktop PCs. As the desktop migrates to the living room, especially as a "digital furnace" controlling the home network, entertainment system, and especially security system, backup through power outages may become a killer feature. If only to get rid of fan noise and allow "instant on" suspend/resume, I believe that notebook power management features will work their way into desktops and settops. This is all pending high bandwidth access from the home, so it will probably be a couple of years. |
