Justa,
RE:Do you think Cymer's order book could be considered a leading indicator for a recovery in this sector overall?
All I can say with certainty is that it would indicate a loosening of the purse strings, especially on the part of the Japanese, but it would not necessarily indicate large capacity related spending would follow. Also, such process upgrades tend to mitigate the need for additional capacity. So I think Cymer would be a good leading indicator for companies that offer the tools which will accompany 0.18/0.15 processes(CMP, copper, low-k dielectrics), but a not so good indicator for those companies whose tools are common to both advanced and "older" processes. The best indicator for an overall sector recovery would be a reversal of the spiral in IC prices in general(DRAM, logic, etc.). We'll most likely need an Asian recovery for prices to perk up, or an acceleration in the adoption of some of the new high-IC content devices(set-top boxes, information appliances, HDTV).
RE:As far as technology buys are concerned, which should lead us out of this slump IMO, what other company (if any) would show an earlier recovery?
I think ASMLF, being the force it is in DUV, would be a good indicator and maybe SFAM, provided AMAT is not totally eating up their market as has been speculated.
I fear that I've stated the obvious and I'm sure you already knew all this, but at least it gave me an opportunity to crystallize my thinking on the subject.
Bob
OR, I could be totally wrong. :-) |
