Stephen - Re: "How come Mr.TK cannot factor in this beneficial Y2K business? "
Given any set of data, such as Intel's recent earnings report, Kurlak will see bad news surrounding each and every data point.
Myself, I tend to see a lot of good news in the data.
Intel has been a great company for many years, but Kurlak's opinion is that those days are over. He has pronounced Intel terminally ill and has begun to give Intel its "last rights", seeing no sign of recovery.
Many, including myself, see excellent signs of recovery such as:
1. The financial demise of Intel's competitors - AMD & Cyrix/NSM.
2. Intel's new market segmentation strategy, allowing Intel to exploit their technology lead and reap ample profits from high end segments (workstations, servers) in which Intel's competitors have no products. Intel, then, controls PRICING in these segments and can maintain lucrative ASPs and grow those market segments at the same time.
3. Intel's technology lead will help them perpetuate their lead in product performance and maintain their market segment approach, while providing "enabling technology" - such as integrated chip sets - to compete at the low end of the market and maintain, and increase, market share. This strategy will help insure that Intel's competitors "remain poor" so they cannot mount a successful counter attack.
4. The Asian plummet has abated and may even show a glimmer of growth opportunity.
5. Year 2000 problems (discussed in a prior post) present a BALLOON of opportunities - that could provide a "burst" in new orders as customers discard non-compliant PCs and replace them with new, compliant HARDWARE (Intel Inside) and SOFTWARE.
6. Intel's Stock Investment Portfolio will increase their balance sheet - providing more money for re-investment. C|NET, CMGI, Citrix Systems, Inktomi, Broadcom, etc.
7. Future technology - MERCED - to base growth on in next century - with NO COMPETITION. This will help install Intel into the truly HIGH END of the Enterprise Zone. Big Silicon will ultimately produce Big Revenue.
8. Intel's networking technology is steadily growing. It will provide an "unspectacular" addition of a few BILLION DOLLARS to the revenue stream in a couple of years.
9. StrongARM - Intel now has a very low power/high performance/small die RISC chip ideal for many embedded and hand held applications. Great possibilities may present themselves in wireless phones, hand held PDAs, and various "intelligent appliance" applications.
Paul |
