Tom,
Nice move on shorting just under 40... here is some TechAnal for you to chew on, favorable to us shorts... I have a horde of Aug35 puts... this rally smells like what ToddW called it early on -- a fake blowoff reflex rally from oversold levels... just what short doctors ordered to gather renewed downward momentum in going after new lows... sounds ridiculous and desperate to some, but wait since fundamentals are deteriorating
**TA** NVLS saw repeated resistance at 50 in late April and very early May... then careened down to close at 31 in midJune... now it rallies back to close at 38 late this week, based on closes... that is 19 points retraced by the classic 3/8... it rests now at the 50-day moving average, an endpoint goal traditionally in reflex rallies... and to put an exclamation point on it, Thursday represented a key daily reversal, closing down 1/2 point, but almost three points off the high, on tripled avg daily volume
with Book/Bill coming out belatedly on Tuesday, could be the beginning of a serious momentum driven reversal powered re-test of old lows... could be the excuse analysts need to begin widespread downgrades
with Intel profit margins eroding, I smell trouble for chips and their fake rally... in past years eroding margins has meant trouble for Intel and chips... in past under 50% margins was the "line in the sand"... now what is it, 40% ???
shorts need new lows, but soon afterward, I want to begin building a long position... like in a couple months
/ Jim Willie |
