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Technology Stocks : General Lithography

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To: jeffbas who wrote (1074)	7/19/1998 11:18:00 AM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (2) of 1305

I agree with parts of your comments. The light stamps would be good for only 1000 impressions (or let's say wafers) while reticle are good forever unless damaged (there is a shelf life for reticles but it usually exceeds the product life of the device). The light stamps would have to be made somewhere and with certain types of tooling. I cannot think of another way to make these light stamps at those feature sizes that would not encompass a product that would be provided by an ETEC-like company. What I find really nice is that they would use a 248nm source or CYMI's laser, at this juncture<GGG>. I have my reasons for not investing in ETEC at this point in time but the reason is not as you pointed out (PEs). I can almost, with 100% certainty state that ETEC's only issues for the next 5 years are competition from UTEK or other new competitors and developing advanced equipment to meet future demands for tools such as theirs. I would possibly go as far a saying 7-10 years but this industry is moving too rapidly to go out that far. I do see ETEC, in that timeframe, selling sirect werite wafer tools that will help with the PE values you may not care for today. I do agree that their is a huge difference between gratings and 1 level litho devices and doing the same thing for a 16-26 layer IC. Remeber, Cold Fusion was demonstrated once in the Laboratory and ENMD had a great "recipe" that came off the lab bench. My understanding is that ENMD has not been able to reproduce its initial results and that there are no Cold Fusion Power Plants in existence today. Science Fiction or theory of today has a good chance of being science reality down the road but it still is science fiction or just theoretical until it is demonstrated for full production. This will take many years, well beyond the vision of the market. Andrew

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