Great analysis.
Some things to think about:
400,000 subscribers is a great target for end of 1999 (I hope you are right, but it seems a little high). In any case, that means signing up roughly 24,000 per month. Therefore, you can't count the full year for all 400,000 subscribers. If it's a flat monthly signup of 24,000 per month, gross revenues would be about $115 million (starting from Aug of this year). Of course monthly subscriber growth rates won't be flat, so even that is high.
Also, did you include the $50 signup fee in your revenue calculations? That would add $20 million assuming no revenue sharing.
After thinking about it, your 300 minutes/month per subscriber might be too conservative. That's only 15 minutes/business day. For a mobile professional, that seems very light. Unfortunately, I don't have access right now to data that shows how much time a mobile professional spends each day doing voice mail and email.
What do you think revenue sharing would be with a carrier? I would expect they will account for a good % of the subscriber signups next year.
I'm not an accountant, but I thought the NOC would be a fixed asset and not an expense? Maybe an accountant on this board can clear this up.
$20 mil marketing & advertising seems high. That would be 20% of $100m in gross revenues. Although, I would love to see them spend that much as I think it would be well worth it in the long run.
Thanks for the great post. |
