Hello again:
Your comments, I believe, are valid. But remember. The test is already approved for screening in Japan. Very big country. Very big population of bladder cancer patients and people at risk (they all smoke, a huge risk factor for bladder CA). In addition just because the test won't be used as a stand alone test doesn't mean that it won't be very useful when combined with another screening marker. Two tests can be very, very synergistic as concerns increasing sensitivity and specificity. The company has already said as much in anticipation of approveal of the NUMA test for intestinal cancer. Combined with CEA screening (the current standard) there would be a terrific synergism that would increas the usefullness of the test dramatically.
The value of the the yen against the dollar may be a negative, but, even so, who cares. If there's business to be done, it will be done. The dollar/yen exchange problem is relative. Not absolute. Huge volume can overcom this. And when the ratio changes, which it will I presume at some future date, it will be even better.
However, this brings up yet another problem. One of production. I am not at all sure that this company, with all their money woes, can ramp up to meet demand. This could be as bad as not having a good product. The current facility is only good for about 10 million dollars in revenue (at lease according to Steve Chubb last year). At ten dollars a pop for the test that means they can produce a million tests per year. If the test catches on quickly just in Japan (which it might with Konica pushing it) the company could be easily swamped and not meet demand. I assume that Konica would help them out under this circumstance but, remember, this is a biological product produced in mice. It takes tiime to make it. Potential problem.
What the company needs desperately is verification of industry acceptance. Read that partner for the cervical cancer screen NMP. If that occurs anytime soon, a serious increase in share price could be imminent. However, with no insiders buying, little "news" from the company, a lack of response to the questions raised by folks like you and me (and probably many others) this company is dead in the water. A lack of early second quarter reporting also indicates that revenues won't be terrific for this quarter. I would bet 400K, at best, for NMP22 sales.
If Steve Chubb or any PR people are reading these comments, how about an honest, straight forward response. What have they got to lose compared to what has been lost already. I won't hold my breath waiting. They are not the type of people who would responod - read that primarily Mr. Corbett - he'd rather sell.
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