I must indulge myself in a reprise of post #2017. I have enriched the revenue model to $1 per week per node from $1 per month. I have enriched the assumed profit margin to 20% from 10%. Still, I think the assumptions are almost timid. [Bracketed entries reflect events since May 10, 1998.]
If multiple OEMs ship PCs with embedded WaveMeters, other OEMs -- and bundled WaveEnabled content -- will follow. The Wave system will be ensconced as a new motherboard functionality [via the I/O component]. Shipments will proliferate. The Wave system will become an e.commerce standard. The installed base will be retrofitted with inexpensive [or value-adding] expansion cards [such as TV tuners]. The Wave system will become ubiquitous. Its versatility will be realized. Its utility to e.commerce will broaden.
If this occurs, the following illustration could be the tip of the iceberg:
Take just the domestic, home market. Say it comprises 30 million PC households. If Wave were able to derive revenue averaging just $1 per week per household, annual revenue would exceed $1.5 billion. If Wave were able to derive earnings of only 20% of revenues, annual earnings would exceed $300 million. If Wave were to issue the maximum of 50 million shares and were able to command a P/E ratio of only 10, the stock price would exceed $60. Apply the same analysis to a global market comprising, say, 100 million PC nodes, and the same assumptions yield a stock price in excess of $200.
Best wishes. |
