Todd, thanks for the disclosure. Actually, the news that you sold a tiny bit of your overloaded THQI position is good news, as I think it is representative of many people who have been through a lot with this stock the past four months. Better to have these sales take place now and be absorbed in the per-earnings runup than dumped the day after earnings.
I've been saying since May that I thought the next time THQI got to $32 it would have no problem bursting through and sustaining. Too many people were expecting it to have trouble so I just had to think that would not be the case. As you said, the fact that the bid held $33 at the end is very encouraging. We may have a brief dip intraday tomorrow, but I'm seeing $35 at some point before Wednesday's close. And if the earnings report is good, I think we'll hit $40 before your mid-August target. Ie, no MPRS "bad" news, a large upside eps, hopefully a split.
This stock will take off again by September as that's when the bulk of the good Q3 games are released. It will average more than one high margin game a week. I think we'll also avoid the August doldrums from last year. We'll at least see small gains for the month of August, IMO.
Also IMO, Quest will sell at least 250K in Q3. This is simply based on 10,000 video game outlets (there are more, but let's stay Bleek) selling two copies a week apiece. 20,000 a week, over 80,000 a month, 250,000 for the quarter. Of course the game will sell more in July than in September, but it averages out. Remember that the television advertising campaign stretched into July. And look how long NWO has held up in the rankings due to having no real competition on the N64 front. Also note that Target is promoting Quest in its Sunday circulars. I expect more of the same to continue, now that the game is a bonafide hit (thanks, PC Data).
It appears that TNT is now going after WWF by running starting Nitro an hour before Raw and running throughout the WWF's broadcast. Also note that WCW Thunder will not air for a couple of weeks due to the Goodwill Games on TBS.
Well, that's how it looks from here on a Sunday night. Thanks Chris for bringing your numbers over to this board. I've gotta say that you should think about joining SI. At least 9 out of 10 discussions are better over here--THQI remains one of the very rare exceptions where the AOL MF board is more committed. (Or is that "more cult-like," I can never remember <<gggg>>). Like NWO, SI is "for life."
Marc |
