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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 231.01+8.3%Feb 6 9:30 AM EST
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To: Q. who wrote (6316)7/20/1998 2:07:00 PM
From: Herschel Rubin  Read Replies (3) of 10921
 
Probably the fundamental causes of the revenue decline will be different in every downturn, so maybe this isn't as significant as the indicators that are more generic: layoffs and lack of earnings visibility.

You might have a good point, John: That it may not matter that the cause of the downturn is different, rather, the generic indicators might be more important.

I'm glad someone else was interested in digging through the "archives" (the 1996 posts on this thread) to see what was happening just before the upturn. In the semi industry, it seems that the "last man standing" stocks seem to surprise us all when they decide to rebound.

Ramsey's comment about the reasons for this downturn being different are indeed compelling. We didn't have the Asian crisis in 1996. Overcapacity is more of a problem, too.

But now, we have the huge potential of multiple-use chipsets (broadband chipsets, home devices) that promise to alleviate some of the cyclical nature of the semi industry. We also have the push for 0.18 micron chips by Intel et al. Plus the 300mm fabs. Plus system-on-a-chip, etc., all of which will stimulate demand for NEW equipment even if there is an overcapacity of old equipment.

Anybody else have any comments on the concept that the onset of layoffs may be a fairly good turnaround indicator? After all, when companies start making painful layoffs, that is a significant point of capitulation -- a public recognition that we're no longer in denial about our prospects -- and we're doing something about it.

Granted, one round of layoffs can be followed by another six months later, but my sense of it is that the fall buying cycle should preclude a need for more layoffs.
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