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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 226.10

+2.5%

3:59 PM EST

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To: umbro who wrote (10756)	7/20/1998 5:29:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (2) of 164684

AMZN options report for 07/20/98 AMZN price: 137.500 Options Forecast for: AUG put price: 112.10 OI = 2589 VOL = 3188 call price: 147.54 OI = 9993 VOL = 5197 consensus: 144.26 R = 0.3 R = 0.6 Options Forecast for: OCT put price: 102.36 OI = 1384 VOL = 748 call price: 150.62 OI = 2921 VOL = 690 consensus: 142.11 R = 0.5 R = 1.1 Options Forecast for: JAN put price: 98.20 OI = 728 VOL = 370 call price: 160.47 OI = 2569 VOL = 443 consensus: 149.23 R = 0.3 R = 0.8 net long/short: 1.08 mil. i.v. for AUG = 0.893 i.v. for OCT = 0.838 i.v. for JAN = 0.788 Although the implied volatility is dropping overall, some of the puts are keeping their vols. For exaple, the Aug 115's are trading with a vol. of 103%. The Aug 140 straddle costs $30.30, so the breakevens (by 8/21) are 109.70 and 170.30. The put/call ratios are rather low, esp. with open interest. Looks like the boat may be leaning a little too far in the direction of the bulls. Wouldn't be surprised for yet another reversal to correct the excess. Big volume today, maybe not quite capitulation by the bears though. The percentages favor a retest of the recent highs, however, given today's big move, I'd expect a +5 point gap open, some follow through and then a pullback for some 'long covering' or profit-taking. Only two more days until earnings, you'd think that both the bulls and the bears would be a little cautious here, with AMZN anything goes.

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