Updated Mon Jul 20 17:32 ET
Full: NYMEX Oil Review: Lower in pre-expiry technical slide
By Glen C. Carey, Bridge News
New York--Jly 20--NYMEX crude futures fell to their lowest levels in a
month amid continued liquidation ahead of the Aug futures contract
expiration Tuesday. The complex was pushed even lower in afternoon trade as
Sep crude fell to a new contract low. Aug crude settled down 64c at $13.34.
Aug heating oil settled down 118 points at 36.30c, while Aug gasoline
settled down 188 points at 42.93c.
* * *
"It was pretty miserable today," a broker said. "We went through major
support levels." The Aug contract pierced support between $13.60 and
$13.55, falling as lows as $13.24.
The Sep contract also broke through key support levels as it gapped
down this morning, opening below Friday's low of $14.25, and continued
lower through key support levels of $14.09 and $13.92. Sep fell as far as
$13.55, a new contract low.
"We got massacred," a broker said. "This tells us that we are still in
the downtrend."
After the market was unable to maintain the gains made last week on
supportive crude inventory data showing a draw of 6.3-6.7 million barrels,
bearish sentiments pushed both the Aug and Sep contract lower.
While brokers expected the Aug contract to be volatile ahead of its
expiration on Tuesday, the Sep drop represents the persistent concern that
the market is still oversupplied, regardless of the pledges made by OPEC to
cut output by 2.6 million bpd.
"Yes, they are making outputs cuts," a broker said, "but this won't
influence the market for for a while."
Also, Aug gasoline gapped lower from Friday's low of 44.75c to 44.37c
then fell as low as 42.80c, which represents a contract low.
Inventory data for gasoline have been disappointing recently as
refineries are operating at capacity. However, Ultramar-Diamond Shamrock
said it expects that its 25,500-bpd catcracker at Ardmore, Okla., won't
restart until the second half of August.
While brokers cited no fundamental news influencing the market's
plunge, the first spare parts contract for Iraq's oil infrastructure is
expected to be approved today by the UN's sanctions committee.
Iraq says its oil facilities need upgrading and repairs to meet
expanded UN goals under the oil-for-aid deal.
OUTLOOK:
The market is expected to trade lower Tuesday ahead of the expiration
of Aug crude futures and on a continuation of the weak technicals that
pressured the Aug contract and Sep to a record low today.
"Technically, we should test down to the $12.95 level," a broker said.
Short-covering may push the contract higher early, but the general
consensus is that the complex will continue to weaken under the weight of
oversupply.
The market then will be anticipating the release of the American
Petroleum Institute data on US crude and product inventories Tuesday as
well.
If the API data reveal a build in crude and products, the market will
be pressured even more significantly, brokers said.
Support for Aug crude has been pegged at $13.15, the low from Jun 22.
UPCOMING:
--NYMEX Aug crude futures expire Tuesday. Sep crude options expire Aug 17,
while Sep crude futures go off the board Aug 20. Aug product options expire
Jly 28; while Aug product futures expire Jly 31.
--API data on US crude and products inventories are released Tuesday after
1600 ET, while the US Department of Energy releases its inventory report
after 0900 ET Wednesday.
IN THE NEWS:
Number Headline
------ --------
.14271 IRAQ: First oil-parts contract expected to be approved today
.12825 IRAQ: SOMO asked to resubmit Aug oil prices by Fri
.12427 IRAQ: Govt plans to up oil exports to over 2.0 mln bpd
.12528 Iran crude buyers confirm cancellations to Aug cargoes
.14502 Iran earns US $3 bln in non-oil exports in year to end-March
.14276 UDS sees Okla. 25,500-bpd catcracker back 2nd-half of Aug
IN NYMEX TRADING TODAY:
CONTRACT MONTH TICKER SETTLEMENT CHANGE TOTAL EST. VOLUME
Futures Options
Crude Aug CLQ8 $13.34/bbl - 64c 160,415 17,802
Sep CLU8 $13.63/bbl - 67c
Heating Oil Aug HOQ8 36.30c/gal - 118 pts 33,326 2,714
Sep HOU8 37.63c/gal - 124 pts
Gasoline Aug HUQ8 42.93c/gal - 188 pts 28,799 4,732
Sep HUU8 43.60c/gal - 185 pts
Brent Aug OILQ8 $12.36/bbl - 44c
Sep OILU8 $12.73/bbl - 51c
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