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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum
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To: MikeM54321 who wrote (5221)7/20/1998 9:03:00 PM
From: Stitch  Read Replies (1) of 9980
 
Mike,

<<Now my questions are, "Is all of the above going to result in problems to the US economy?" >>

Here is a link originally posted by John Hunt on the Mohan thread. (What a great news hound he is).

nypostonline.com

It points to exactly what your are questioning. Here is a cut from the linked article that I would be especially concerned about.

According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement agency, companies announced 54,914 job cuts in June. That was a 99 percent increase over May's number and 264 percent more than June 1997.

I think there is still some room for a continuation of the bull for a while as labor statistics (as outlined in the article) are not especially accurate and lag considerably. But I believe these figures will catch up with us. I have long said that employment levels will have to be watched closely. I think a watch on mutual fund capital flow and figures on 401Ks (available?) is prudent.

I believe also that there will be a tailing off of off-shore capital in-flow as Asians must "shore up" to garner strength (cash) at home to survive what is surely a worsening situation. I look for some diminishing of our sanctified liquidity if all this pans out. If it is a significant tailing off then you know what happens. I am also eager to hear Zeev's comments, and anyone elses as well.

Best,
Stitch
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