what is your opinion on today's drop and what is your prognostic, are we going to see the patient die or he will get better.
Luc --
I can't find any sound reason for today's weakness so I have to blame it on effective PR from the competition. In addition to an imbalance in sentiment over who has the best ATM, the market doesn't like uncertainty. In fact, it functions like a galaxy of benign dictatorships or religious orders. Each company's story is their canon --- their Great March or Mein Kampf or Five-Year Plan --- and when the Street gives its allegiance, it holds on with religious fervor. To mess with the story is to tell the parishioners bread isn't flesh and wine isn't blood. You do so at your own risk.
Once the mystery is pierced, i.e., numbers missed too many times, the flock disperses and finds other leaders to follow. To get them back, you have to propel dogs in space or give orations from backs of trains or heal the lame and give sight to the blind. Not an easy task. Just ask Ascend.
I think NN might have stumbled along with the same old management for quite some time, and perhaps even gone up in tandem with Ascend --- look how long the Soviet Union lasted --- yet, for the long term health of the company, a specialist had to be brought in and when the Street found out a few amputations were in order, they fainted dead away and most are still out cold.
What they need is a bucket of cold water in the form of a few multi-million dollar contracts, a restatement of vows with Siemens, and a roster of management changes that says they mean business. What they don't need is rabbits out of hats and hell-fire-and-brimstone rhetoric that makes them look good by making the other guy look bad.
Once a company proves its story isn't a sleight of hand --- or tool for someone's cancerous greed --- the Street will be back. They thrive on stories and the best are those that play well and have substance, besides.
Later --
Pat |
