Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 231.01

+8.3%

Feb 6 9:30 AM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Herschel Rubin who wrote (6318)	7/21/1998 4:14:00 AM
From: Q.	Read Replies (1) of 10921

Herschel, re. <<any comments on the concept that the onset of layoffs may be a fairly good turnaround indicator?>> Another good question for this extremely cyclical industry would be what sort of indicator will spot the top of the cycle. Secondaries and placements of convertible bond issues might be as good as any. Consider the peak of the last cycle, which occured in late August to early October 1997: 20 August 1997, Lam sold $310 M of convertible bonds. In October 1997, Speedfam announced a secondary, and Asyst completed a private offering of stock. So maybe one could time the cycle in this industry well enough by simply: * selling when equity is sold * buying when there are layoffs I don't know how perfect this would be. I suspect that buying on news of layoffs might be a surer thing than selling on news of secondaries, since the cyclical expansion might possibly go longer. The expansion from Oct 96 to Oct 97 was a pretty short one.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next