Public reply to a private post.
I think the poster asked exactly the right question at the
right time so I wanted make a public response. (The poster
can make their name known if they wish.)
>I just wanted to buy you a virtual beer so we could toast
Apple's continued success. (etc.)<
Bribing me with beer and flattery to get free stock advice is a
sure-fire strategy that will work every time. Burp. Thanks. :)
or ":) Thanks. Burp."
>I'm currently out in the 37s and looking to get back in
after a short correction. A dangerous move admittedly, but
such is life. I've got a hunch that we'll see another run
into the 40's fairly soon. Am I nuts?<
Umm ... yeah, you're nuts. (But so's everybody else on this
thread.)
Seriously, I have been holding and increasing my core
position throughout the year. My trading on short-term call
options around Apple events has been pretty successful.
However, my attempt to time a short-term strategy to get in
and out of a core position has mostly been an exercise in
futility. [I wait till we're too far off the peak. Then I
buy back in on a sucker rally. Then I don't have the
reserve cash to buy when AAPL really swoons, etc.]
During this current post-earning period, though I am tempted
to take profits, but I was too busy at work to follow the
intraday quotes so I just let it ride. I investigated
writing some mid-term calls, but found it's going to get me
into a whole new tax area.
I started investing in 1992. I've taken lots of short-term
profits which looked (and felt) good at the time but were
*dwarfed* by the long term gains I could've made. (We
don't talk about the losses.)
AAPL is still the cheapest, most disliked computer stock
with (IMO) the best product and earnings outlook.
It's certainly tempting, given how much suffering AAPL
shareholders have had to endure, to take short-term profits.
And given the overall market outlook (and the need to
re-balance one's portfolio) it may even be wise.
However, IMO, trying to short-term time AAPL's stock price
with such violently exploding fundamentals (iMac, eMac,
Alti-vec, G4, OSX, Web-Objects, etc.) *is* nuts. The
greater risk is to be out of it and miss major-league long
term upside. With short-interest continuing to be a major
factor, any dramatic news announcement can cause a major
surge and lose you an inexpensive re-entry opportunity.
Bottom line advice: Re-establish your core position. Leave
it alone. (Screw around with short-term options if you've
got an itch.)
Got it? |
