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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble

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To: Les H who wrote (764)	7/21/1998 11:42:00 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) of 3339

If you plot a 3 yr. or 4yr. chart of the NAZ, w/ a 200 day MA, you'll see what I'm saying perhaps. Every instance where the index rose more than 15% above the 200 day MA resulted in an eventual correction all the way back to the line, and in a couple of instances past it. I'm not saying it won't go to +20%. With the strength currently showing, it may go past 20 even. Last time it went past 20 was in July 95', to 23%. I know it seems an awfully simple signal- but hey, sometimes we need to go back to the basics. If we go past 20% any time soon, I would expect that to be the end of this bull market- a blow-off top. I don't think that will happen real soon. The NAZ will probably be a flat market for a while after earnings season is over. The DJI and the RUT will play catch-up, and then the bears take over. BWDIK Do you have your high jump indicator tabulated? I'd like to see some of the back data. TW

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