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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 237.85-2.6%3:26 PM EST
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To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (11017)7/21/1998 12:41:00 PM
From: Rob S.  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
McNabb - always one of such fine courtesy and grace; I am short (sold naked JAN 125 & 130 calls) and am about to do more when the TA charts look right.

My guess right now is that Amazon.com will flurt with a new high by tomorrow afternoon before the earnings come out. I expect Amazon's sales numbers to look pretty good but behind the numbers the cost of sales and momentum will tell a different story. Whether analysts pay attention to that is more guess work. I will be participating in the conference call. Hopefully some hard questions will start to be asked by the entranced analysts. I think the outcome of the earnings release has much more to do with the mood swings and herd reaction of the anals as if does with facts and figures. After the attention surrounding earnings fades, my guess is that the stock will pull back toward the 100 level over the short-term. Because AMZN will remain a darling of the internet sector, it may take up to several months for the stock to find a reasonable valuation - down to 60-70 within a year or so. Amazon.com will start to be a take-over candidate if it moves down below that level. I don't expect this stock to crash down to a value based on current sales and earnings or to go out of business as some have suggested. Times won't turn hard for 2-3 years and by then many things can happen.

These are just my guesses; What's yours?
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