Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 225.59

+2.2%

2:02 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: umbro who wrote (10919)	7/21/1998 6:08:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (1) of 164684

AMZN options report for 07/21/98 AMZN price: 132.063 Options Forecast for: AUG put price: 111.04 OI = 5109 VOL = 3575 call price: 144.45 OI = 12532 VOL = 7626 consensus: 137.30 R = 0.4 R = 0.5 Options Forecast for: SEP put price: 104.50 OI = 90 VOL = 127 call price: 149.25 OI = 243 VOL = 28 consensus: 141.90 R = 0.4 R = 4.5 Options Forecast for: OCT put price: 100.76 OI = 2357 VOL = 505 call price: 148.29 OI = 3763 VOL = 2318 consensus: 138.18 R = 0.6 R = 0.2 Options Forecast for: JAN put price: 94.40 OI = 1662 VOL = 252 call price: 160.24 OI = 3011 VOL = 1353 consensus: 143.20 R = 0.6 R = 0.2 net long/short: 1.03 mil. i.v. for AUG = 1.012 i.v. for SEP = 0.995 i.v. for OCT = 0.941 i.v. for JAN = 0.793 Today's wicked downturn, and wide range has pumped some implied vol. into the Aug. options, and they're back to their old +100 levels. However, I'd expect the i.v. to quickly drop, post earnings announcment. My guess is that earnings is either a non-event (because everything positive is already in the price) or a slight upside surprise (as mentioned before, with analysts lowering expectations ahead of the announcement, it makes it easier to "surprise" to the upside). I'd be surprised if we see significant downside pressure until a week/so after announcement when the insiders and employees get their chance at profit-taking, but with AMZN who can tell? There are up to 6mil. shares that can be exercised by employees immediately per the March 10-Q. That doesn't include insiders, though my guess is they'll see it as politically incorrect to unload right now. I'd call the put/call ratios basically neutral here. As mentioned the call activity could be due to outright shorting, or simply worried bulls hedging their shares by selling some juicy call premium. My guess for tomorrow is a narrow range day, as the bulls and bears hold their breath ahead of the earnings announcement.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next