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To: Andrew Vance who wrote (14980)	7/21/1998 6:55:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) of 17305

Andrew: Here are a few questions which you can milk in a series of posts on your shameless run to claim 15,000<G>. What scenario do you envision based upon your experience at SEMICON West for a recovery in the semiconductor capital equipment sector? Looks like technology buys for .18um lead the way to me. What was the overall atmosphere there? If it is much worse than in 1996 this time around, wouldn't you think total bookings would hover at least around 800m or less for a at least a few months before we get a recovery? I don't see a "V" shaped recovery scenario, how about you? What is more of a problem in this environment in your opinion: (1) lack of available financing for the SEA DRAM boys; or (2) DRAM overcapacity. Can financing be secured by the DRAM boys (I assume they want the new stuff but cannot finance it) without a recovery or stabilization in DRAM pricing? There you go - that should be enough to get you to 15,000 <G>.

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