Hi Harry. After plotting what appears to be the last possible angulation, that can be drawn from the highs in mid april and the lows in mid march, on friday, i never extrapolated the days out.
I have 11 trading days from last friday, which is the first few days in August also from that angle
this pennant can be drawn a few ways now because of the duration of this base( is what i really want to call it now but i think it is even stronger than that). With the same upper line a different angle now forms from the lows in this base starting from the 2.71 and are increasingly higher lows. this comes out about another 11 days beyond the first and older one. however the older larger pennant keeps with the 50 day simple MA.
You know although we have been in an uptrend since the end of June (26th) {a 2 stair step pattern} which also equated with a 0% of the 10K stochastic and should have marked the real low, we seem to extending ourselves into a more prominent BASIN or cup pattern that i had posted back about a short time ago.
I mean we could keep extending these angles with each new attack on 3.5, but i think it is time to look at the large base formation that is extending out on to this right shoulder nicely as a part of the big picture of the Reverse Head and Shoulders( classic textbook appearance). The strength that i referred to is in the cup, as shallow
as it is, as a part of this right shoulder and the stability of this pattern in building momentum to carry another 300% from 2.71.
Take a look at the monthly chart on IMNR for 96 and 97 . you will see the similar formation that was created there but we are looking at a daily formation here but nearly identical.
If it is a true cup formation the move will carry to the 4.25, like you expected, and then a handle will form back down to 3.5 and then see you later. this volume really lends its creation of this churning base as it did before the move from 1.20 to 4
As a true pennant it should pull to the down side but if you look at all the high volume days ( those over 100K) since we made the 4.2 high
they all fall on the low $3 high $2 days, the bottom of the basin where bids come flying in.
You hit the nail on the head when advising to look elsewhere for better gains for a while and i think that was back in MAy was it? good call.
I still show positive MACD and momentum and the 50 day simple MA a steadfast call for support at about 3.10 for the pennant race and high 2's for the basin cup show.
either way it looks very healthy, but time wise we could still go the end of the head and shoulder as an equal distance from the left formation. have you plotted that time frame?
If this is a true pennant we will not spend much time in the $4 area but should return to test the upper levels of the right shoulder in time.
What are your other alternative estimates?
ar.
|
