Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 267.87

-0.6%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (22024)	7/21/1998 11:47:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) of 70976

GM, My observation has been that when the markets have a very large run up in the spring and summer that a correction occurs during the fall (no pun intended). I "predicted" this scenario in '97 in the April/May timeframe and was ridiculed soundly, in the end I was correct. I have seen this scenario played too many times to ignore its relevance, I just consider it a "normal" predictable occurance, based on market performance and investors/funds taking profits off the table while they are still maximized. It is very difficult for stocks that have had tremendous price run-ups to improve performance in the 4th quarter (going into the forward looking 1st quarter). I relate it to a balloon that has been fully inflated, it can't inflate any more unless some pressure is relieved, without bursting. I also suspect that certain large funds do strategic positioning of their holdings during this time as a prelude for the upcoming new year and want to be in a cash position to allow adept stock purchases on bargains that are available in the new 1st quarter. Just my opinion, BB

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