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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (5227)7/22/1998 2:06:00 AM
From: B Tate  Read Replies (2) of 9980
 
Zeev

Just have to comment on a couple of points you've made re the money supply;

<<. A lot of what we print (in terms of greenbacks) is simply taken out of circulation (and completely out of the US economy) by the mattress filling citizenry in the Rim and>>

I think our friend Stitch will agree on this as well. THE currency for foreign travelers on business trips in Asia is the Greenback. It is always convertible into whatever local currency is applicable. Even members of ASEAN who travel within ASEAN on business use the Greenback as the primary currency. The new (large) 50 and 100s are the currency of choice and in most places carry a premium for exchange.

Reason ?? - In my view the local populace (whether Malaysian, Thai and Chinese) can only fit so many pieces of paper in the mattress and each piece better carry the maximum value.

You may remember a few months ago when the yen was in the 120 range that I had posted clips from an article written by a Thai economist that predicted the yen in the 160 to 200 range.

<< my target of 156 yen/dollar in it (some "learned people are claiming that the yen will go to 276 yen/dollar,>>

I find it comforting that between your "low of 156" and the "learned's high of 276" averages out to be 216 and very close to the original guestimate. I hate to think what anything over 160 will do the rest of the Asian economies, but 250+ would be devastation.

Regards
bt
P.S. I've starting growing radishes. Hopefully they will result in smaller forcasts.
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