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Strategies & Market Trends : SELL??? Contrarian indicators in the market
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To: White Shoes who wrote (5)12/8/1996 10:25:00 PM
From: Ray Jensen   of 19
 
GS, I agree with some of your concerns about the general stock market atmosphere we are in right now. In August, everyone was feeling pretty down and out after the summer slide, especially on the NASDAQ. Suddenly, everyone is worried about too much of a move up too quick. My belief is that what we are beginning to experience is the result of activity far beyond Wall St or the USA, and far more powerful than the stock market.

A massive amount of global economic activity in the last few years, especially in the developing world, is creating incredible demand for products and services. You can find this growing demand even in remote towns in developing countries. I think all these doomsday predictions about a 1929 like stock market collapse are way overblown, because the developing world's appetite for products and services is just beginning to take off. Global commerce today cannot be compared to 1929, when global trade was mainly based on raw materials.

Am I a blind optimist in the stock market? No way. I keep my portfolio trimmed to five or six strong small and mid cap stocks at a time. I watch them closely every day for troubling signs. I am no longer so hesitant about selling a stock that I no longer feel comfortable with, even if it means a loss. If I had twenty or more stocks, this would be really hard to manage. I have been taking profits the last few weeks and have about 25 percent of my portfolio in cash now, waiting for some good buying opportunities in the near future. Ray Jensen
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