I got to thinkin today....
Not that I'm getting philosphical or nothin, but I was thinking about what exactly this message board and talk about CMTR has accomplioshed. Any one every visit Motley Fool? Well, they have some great articles and I was thinkin about one I read about a week back. It chronicled the tale of Iomega. Everyones heard of it now, but they didn't before. I'm not saying CMTR is the next Iomega, but I think we should all take a look at what their initial message boards on AOL have accomplished and how we can use some of those ideas here.
In our folders we, so far, have discussed rumors, price flucuations, volume and the amount of sales sold short. But is this what we should concentrate on? Not to say these things shouldn't be discussed but I am interested in the numbers. On the original Iomega board, "fools" went as far as to go out and visit the factory to see if they could see anything. ie.. how many cars were there, shipments going out etc... For all of us to make money in the long run, we need to discuss 1)production 2)estimates on earnings and 3)keep in good contact with personell at ChemTrak. Currently Chemtrak is producing their HpChek kits for Astra-Merck. How many are they producing? They won't release any numbers and the people at Astr-Merck aren't either. We need to estimate this some how. (By the way does anybody cover CMTR with a buy/sell rating, does anyone have earnings estimates?) Lets get some numbers on the table. If the numbers are there we will all make money in the long run. No one can argue with that. No One. Also, they are producing their HIV kits, just not the packaging. Numbers on these could also help us estimate numbers in the future. By the way, this is a good sign and shows the company is fairly confident because they are already spending needed cash for something that isn't yet approved. I want numbers. We all know the value of all three of their products. IMO the fourth quarter numbers are going to be some of the most important numbers this company will ever, and has ever released. They will show how much we are set to make off the Astra-Merck deal and if we disect the numbers with a microscope we can figure out how many test kits they have made and are included in unsold merchandise. Also, has CMTR ever released any details on the deal from Astra-Merck? I hope they are good, but in reality the way the deal is structered greatly effects the price of the stock. Do not in any way get me wrong by this post. I am still long on CMTR (Hopefully i will be for quite some time) but, there are alot of questions that need to be addressed. When these are answered we can gossip, talk of possible suitors for CMTR or do what ever. Right now we need a good discussion. Are their any takers????????
As Always,
Art
One Last Note: Iomega had at one time 30% of outstanding shares. (This number was taken from the Motley Fool at www.fool.com) Sounds a little similar to what the situation at CMTR is. By the numbers somone posted here and was worried about we only have about 5.5%. Am I worried, I sure hope not!!! |
