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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 223.31

-3.2%

Nov 13 3:59 PM EST

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To: Joe S Pack who wrote (22065)	7/22/1998 7:29:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (2) of 70976

REMEMBER, IMO and history most semi management do an awful job at predicting or forecasting any trends in the semi business. i remember just a while ago amat said everything was fine and i remember klic at a tech conference saying business was great but for me or really anybody with a clue-not wall street knew that asia effect would eventually hit them all. now, they are all crying saying this is awful and really the THE REALITY is nobody saw the first leg down and nobody will see the upturn. THE COMPLETE FOOLS ARE THE PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT IN MARCH when these semi's rallyied because asia was stabilizing and eps were allright-amat went to 39-klic went to 28, klac at 46. they have no excuses because if you took ecomics 101 you knew the that asia currency problem plus the weakness in the summer quarter would have to hit these guys latter on. as most people know i was short these guys because brian and wall street were in denial that eps would stink but the REALITY NOW IS ALL OUT IN THE PUBLIC IS AWARE OF THE PROBLEMS.. MONEY IS MADE ON SURPRISES ON THE WAY UP AND THE DOWN. ALL the news has been awful any little positive news -ie intc news on numbers will move thse things very quick. i say one thing i believe is semi's have bottomed , estimates have come down dramatically in the group is ready for a rebound around october or november. i like amat around 27-29 . klac at 25-27, ter , lscc, nvls, asyt. i really believe by year end these babies will be up 40-60%. these managers never saw the downturn and they will not see the upturn. nobody on wall street saw the downturn to it was to late and they will be all over these things at higher prices. i had dinner yesterday with a portfolio manager who runs the second best performing tech fund this year and his comment on the semi's were that they are very cheap but its dead money and he would rather pay higher when the cycle turns then tie up cash so he watching carefully. THE PROBLEM IS HIM AND 5 MILLION OTHER PEOPLE are all trying to do the same thing. remember in 1996, one day these rallied 7-9 points in a day when people thought it turned. i believe these stocks with all money and momentum boys dying to buy these things that the next rally will be 15-20 point days on fear that nobody wants to miss the upcycle. all the bad news is out i really like to be early. ALSO , the valuation is cheaper and your risk is lower than the overall maket. if you don't believe look at CA AND KLIC PERFORMANCE TODAY WITH THEIR NUMBERS. good night,

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