Peter: Your (and Steve's) recent postings reflect a remarkable degree of objectivity despite your stated long positions. Commendable.
Although AGPH is underpriced ( only as far as Viracept revenues go), I believe that given the hype and counter hype, the complexity of alternative and combo therapies, actual and proposed, ( e.,g. IN THEORY according to Immunex, Remmune ( is it a vaccine or is it an immune booster?) stand alone PIII trials, if successful, could reduce or eliminate the need for PI therapy) even the experts, much less the market, are in no position to predict future direction- the result cautious pessimism.
Nor does creation of an Oncology division add to AGPH intrinsic value.In the short run, it means more confusion about how this would work.
The Biotechs are increasingly under pressure because in vivo, in vitro, PI and even PII studies don't mean much given the statistical potential for PIII disappointment- at huge costs.
The single most tangible way for AGPH to serve its shareholders is to get a home run with AG3340. Unfortunately, nothing AGPH has publicly said, so far, gives the shorts any cause to worry. |
