shares. Do you think INPR is dead money or might we see a gradual
increase in the share price in the near future?
William,
I was disappointed that Inprise failed to meet analyst's earnings estimates, and I am a bit perturbed that Del did not come out with some sort of warning about this, even something like, 'We expect to meet or perhaps fall slightly below the forecast.' At the same time, one has to also realize that we are only talking about 1/2 million or less to meet the estimate, or perhaps one good enterprise sale.
Getting past this, the critical item of interest was the conference call. I listened to it carefully, and I was impressed. About 3/4's of Inprise's revenue is now from the enterprise. In addition, most of Inprise's software sales or now at the enterprise level, with a declining amount of desktop sales. That says to me that the big boys are taking notice of Inprise products and technical expertise. I think Del's plans are on track, something I was not sure about last week.
Inprise tried but failed to close two big contracts by the end of last quarter. Del says he expects to consumate the deals before the end of the month. This might fall apart, but he gave no indication of any concerns along this line.
In a sense, the company has inadvertently placed two major 6-figure enterprise sales into Q3, and if the company continues to gain sales, it could easily surpass $50 million next quarter and perhaps earnings of 5 to 10 cents. Barring a collaspe of the market or some major problem at Inprise, I'm betting that the stock will start to reflect these estimates as we approach BORCOM. If the conference call is still up (from an earlier post by Alex -- 800-475-6701 Code 399072), I strongly suggest you listen to it.
Technically, Inprise needs to hold above about 6 3/4. It bounced off this point today, with a quick surge back to around 7 1/4. If it does, it will constitute an intermediate-term double bottom. This makes sense in that Inprise is better off now than the first bottom, and certainly better off than last year when it only went a little lower. All of these bottoms are above the 4 7/8 or thereabouts bottom at the worst of the company's troubles. I feel pretty confident that we are at the bottom, although it may hang around here for a little while.
I'm so confident that I went big into Oct 7.5 calls, getting as low as 1/2 today. You got to figure this represents virtually no time premium on a stock that only has to go to 8 by mid-October for breakeven. I intend to keep picking these calls up in anticipation of continuing good news and at least a slow rise in the stocks value. I would not be surprise to see the stock in the mid 8's by BORCOM and well above 9 approaching earnings. I anticipate making a bundle.
If I am wrong, then Oh well!
Sam |
