OK, Chip and all youse guys out there in TDFX land- I am here to "spread my wisdom" as Chip put it. New trial member on the board (permission to skip posts- granted!). A quick intro: have been reading posts here for many months, and have been a regular poster to the Yahoo and TMF boards. Though both provide solid info on occasion, getting through the noise has been a growing annoyance. And since one of the better posters, Michael Flemming (Got2MuchTime) now has his own "column" I am considering the move to SI. I recently decided to go back to school and am working on a dual MS program in finance and accounting. The money I am managing (losing would be more accurate) is from my and my wife's IRA (from the good 'ol days when I had an income). Considered doing the SI thing a while back, and as it turns out, it would have been my best investment in some time yielding better than 50% return (lifetime SI has gone to $200!!).
Enough small talk! Here is some of my take on TDFX:
First, let me comment on Sun Tzu's comments about selling your TDFX: crazy. He quotes rules of value investing which can be found in any value investing book. I can produce more books which subscribe to the buy and hold theory. My best take (from lurking) is that not everyone here daytrades.
Next I saw mention of shares outstanding. Though I am not sure of the shares outstanding at the moment, it is a larger number than was used in the EPS calculation from the quarterly. The reason for this is that calculation of EPS is done on a weighted basis, and shares were sold intra-quarter. Expect the no. of shares used in the calculation to continue to rise until the meet the official number outstanding (something like 17.5M).
I have also seen concern for inventory levels. This is certainly a valid concern. Building inventory can be one of those baaaad signs for technology co's. TDFX's mgmt. met this concern with the "V1.5" thing. Now, what kind of a post would this be without a little conspiracy theory thrown in? Here's my theory: I don't really think that V1.5 ever really existed. V2 core and a single TMU is a Banshee less the 2D. Where would this fit in the current or future market? Ballard has said he doesn't want to confuse the customer. V 1.5 would have REALLY confused the customer. I get the impression that management is pretty sharp. I don't think they really made a V 1.5 blunder. I think they sandbagged some sales at the end of the quarter, used V 1.5 as an excuse, and if you were to check inventory on July 7 you would have seen a big drop. Did you notice how sales increased EXACTLY down the middle of their guidance 15-20%? Hmmm. Sun Tzu would refer to this as "Hope" while others would simply call it insane. For the record, my wife "hopes" that I am not insane, and would like nothing more than for me to get off of the computer right now!
Glad to meet you, and I promise to keep future posts more down to business.
Jeff |
