Jim, IDC & Dataquest should soon come out with PC sales for Q2, 98. This data should help us finetune our eps estimates for Q2. I have already inputed changes in ASP based on Meredith's comments the other day. Here's my estimates so far;
A] Unit Sales Volume......1.765 million
This represents 11% sequential growth over Q1,98 which is the same growth as Q1,98 vs Q4,97. By rights I should have used 13% sequential growth but I decided to be conservative in my estimates. I can always input a revised number when IDC/Dataquest report.
B] ASP.....................$2,367
This represents a 4% decline versus Q1,98. This is the same reduction experienced in Q1,98 vs Q4,97. However, given the anecdotal evidence to date for Q2 I believe the ASP erosion in Q2 may actually be less than the 4% I estimated.
C] Gross Margin.............$940.00 million or 22.5%
This is higher than Q1 [22.27%] but DELL's increased penetration of the portables, server & workstation segments in combination with continuing market share growth of the higher margin European business warrants this higher margin.
D] Operating Expenses........$472M or 11.30% [vs 11.33% in Q1,98]
Not much change but we should continue to see a continuing decline in OE as a % of sales.
E] Operating Income..........$468M or 11.20% [vs 10.94% in Q1]
F] Income Before Tax.........$475M or 11.37% [vs 11.12% in Q1]
G] Net Income [AT]...........$333M or 7.96% [vs 7.79% in Q1]
I've used an effective tax rate of 30% - the same as the previous 2 quarters.
H] Fully diluted Avg weighted shates.....690M [vs 700M in Q1]
I] EPS estimate...............48›
Your comments would be appreciated |
