Steve, I'm trading this puppy, and as a rule don't 'talk my book'.
Today looks like a bad day to trade ... too many mixed currents.
Traders/owners need the long weekend ahead (and the media coverage
that will obviously be in play) to mull over the past/future.
Then maybe we'll see some consensus, or at least some intraday
conviction. My guess is the trump card is going to be insider
and employee options trading. There's about 6 mil. (per 10-Q,
adjusted for split) employee options that can be exercised
immediately, and in three/so days we should be in the "sell
window". 6 mil. is a major percent of the float (which we're
guessing is currently between 8 and 15 mil.). If the stock is
to go down, there needs to be some 'natural sellers' (as opposed
to 'nervous short sellers'), and if they come out of the woodwork,
I don't think any momentum trader (or market maker) will stand in
their way.
Before the bears get too comfortable, AMZN is likely
holding a few cards up its sleeve, and is just waiting for the
day when the market and stock price is soft to step in with a
well-timed announcement, or PR piece. My guess is that the insiders
are more/less locked in, until AMZN turns a profit, which is
two to three years out. If Bezos unloads earlier, he'll probably
be subjected to all sorts of shareholder lawsuits. Figuring out
what the VC's will do as an exit strategy is a lot more difficult
to guess at. Maybe they'd like to do a private placement, and
sell to another company or institution, but who will pay at the
current quote (Softbank is probably tapped out :) ).
I really want to see the audited 10Q, and the consolidated balance
sheet of AMZN and the 3 cos. it acquired. Looks to me like AMZN
paide a high price for their customer lists, but time will tell.
At least hopefully, with the bond issue, and split, and acquisition,
and approval of new shares behind AMZN (for now), it should be easier
to understand AMZN's financials without a degree in financial
archeology.
A trader friend who doesn't follow AMZN closely had this to say
about the AMZN announcement:
ok .. it posted a penny more loss than expectations ... balance sheet has
more twists and turns than a mountain road ... this looks more like an
investment company than a book seller <g> ...
there ya go. :) |
