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Technology Stocks : Oak Technology (OAKT)
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To: Lindsey R. Spencer who wrote (4085)7/23/1998 11:13:00 AM
From: slob  Read Replies (1) of 4335
 
Lindsey, Why do owners of falling stocks always expect a take-over?

I follow a lot of semi stocks and I'm always amazed that people expect a takeover when a stock is at it's worst. I know the feeling "I can't have been so silly as to buy something that others don't want" but this is no reason to expect any "white knight" to step in and take the problem off our hands.

If your expecting a takeover than look at other semi take-overs in the past few years, what you'll find is that NONE has occurred because the BV was greater than the MC. As a matter of fact most recent takeovers have happened at MC >> BV.

I know that on the surface it seems logical that a large company should buy a small player just so that it can increase its BV, however, what your forgeting is that there is usually a reason why these small companies are trading at low multiples. What makes this unattractive is that the takeover usually results in lower Margins for the acquiring company. If you do any value modelling for semi's you'll quickly see that increasing gross margins is a critical component of share price. So even though it may make sense from a product portfolio perspective the buy-out will not pass muster at the corporate level.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents worth.

Slob
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