JP Durham ->stakes are HUGE.< "WHY DSL?" by JW@KSC
I tried here in 1Q 96 to show how huge the DSL Market will be. Perhaps the piece I've been working on will be an eye opener, for those who can not yet to see what some of us here have learned.
Not quite ready for posting, but the time is right..
WHY DSL?
December 9, 1996
To better help you out in seeing my point of view, you need to see the world from my perspective, the following is my attempt to give you a glimpse.
It does no one justice if my comments (or pieces of) are not concurred with, or questioned. I certainly don't have the time to answer everyone's comments, as I do tend to spend an extraordinary amount of time in researching the happenings around the world, narrowing my perspective to DSL information. Every piece, either pro or con can be assimilated along with the mass (kinda like how Microsoft operates) We Are Microsoft You Will Be Assimilated!
At the heart of my perspective of DSL equipment manufactures, and Amati in particular, is my view on the immensity of where this all leads. Let's say for just a moment, DSL was never developed. Where would we be in 5-6 years.
ISDN would continue to be a viable yet expensive alternative for the consumer.
56K modems would exceed the phenomenal success of 14.4 and 28.8 modems, even though they will not achieve 56kbps on a large percentage the POTS lines.
Lets not forget FIBER. Here we would see great inroads into Hybrid Fiber Coax (HFC). Cable companies that could afford the infrastructure upgrades, they would continue to grow, each with their own mismanaged
greedy cooperate level.
TELCO's and FIBER. How long and how much would it cost to put fiber to our doorstep?
Ray Smith CEO Bell Atlantic stated 40 years for full Fiber Deployment. Referring to someone elses comment on DSL being a "Short Term Solution", short term being 40 years. My view 10 years to most neighborhoods.
Wireless, probably everyone's biggest threat, or a consumer technology extravaganza, with it's generally narrow bandwidth.
I don't see Wireless growing as fast as most industry analysts, though the market is huge, many in niche areas. Launching the satellites in the numbers I've been hearing, does not agree with my assessment of Launch programs world wide, at least those I am familiar with being at "The Cape ". That's not to say someone will not develop a Satellite worm which spits out satellites every few thousand miles in Geo. synchronous orbit. It will be a few years before this to gains speed, and placing needed satellites in orbit, before the consumers will feel its effects.
It appears that in the year 2001, the average consumer, wishing for multimedia and fast Internet Access will still be waiting, without
DSL technologies.
I've been hearing about the promise of fiber for 20 years, I'm kinda tired of hearing it's coming to a curb near you..
Enter DSL, sorry cable, you were headed for Internet Access Heaven. The consumer fee's would have paid for the HFC infrastructure upgrade, plus a chance at local loop telephone customers.
Obviously Cable Company executives, to include Ted Turner have looked at the impact of DSL, and the market share they would receive, and decided the financial cost of upgrade, could not be paid for by the consumer fee's. Not all Cable Companies have pulled their hat out of the ring. TWC is hooking HFC to my home on Tue. 11 Dec. No Cable modem yet, just a 486 MP sitting a top my entertainment center in a STB Set-top-box. The Fiber Terminates less than 300ft from my home. You know, once I have my HFC, I will be sending a letter each month, until I have a cable modem, but some how I know I'll have ADSL, before I ever see a cable modem in my server, from Time Warner Cable.
Back to the immensity of it all. ADSL can bring the world megabit data access, be it at 1.5Mbps or 8Mbps.
Do you see the population of the WWW (not Internet) growing at a phomominal pace, or slowing ?
I refer to the WWW. as a FAD as to what the Internet will be 5-6 years from now, it will look like what is termed as a FAD.
But the Internet lives on, with the advent of Java, and many new ways of interacting. Java may well have a shot at becoming the OS Operating System of the Internet, you heard it here first back in 1Q 96 right here. Then the day we do not use keyboard for tedious input, word-processing as one example, will be a day to remember (this in 5 years or less). You realize the keyboard keys have not changed their layout or extra keys added since PC 's hit the streets, in general, since PC's have turned into very powerful multimedia equipment/server and thier cost remains relitivly the same. For $2,500. you can get close to the top of the line, my 286 in 1987 cost $2,500 with a 20meg hard drive. That's about all it came with.
Back on topic, DSL is a technology that works. There are over 20 thousand ADSL modems in trial around the world, by all major TELCO's
How many pathways does DSL have into your home? Now ask that same question to the other 670 million POTS Voice customers out there the same question.
Estimate that 120 million have PC's.
How many will get a STB in the next five years, that provides connections of HFC, ADSL/VDSL Ethernet & ATM?
With DSL we have Video on demand VOD, Multi-Channel Broadcast, HDTV, Video Games, Home Shopping, web surfing via some form of WEBTV, Gambling, Erotica, and Voice POTS too. Erotica is one of the pioneers that is leading the online industry. They know where their potential markets are. They have people translate their content to the host country language hence meeting the needs of a world wide customer base. These are the foundations to Internet commerce, and you don't see this happening in most Industries, most are concentrating on their old customer base in general. No matter what country you are in $ex $ell$. Images, and is expanding towards video conferencing. Erotica will be the catalyst that will propel Internet commerce, in the large numbers of customer, and revenues. This will bring to light the how much this online advertising is worth, for those who do not yet see the inevitable.
But until we can receive video and animation in real-time, such as Commercials or product demonstrations, this will not take off. What do we need to achieve is what online commerce so badly needs? Bandwidth! Does DSL come to mind.
Is DSL not also the answer to relieving the Voice Switches of data traffic? Is Data on the Switches not becoming a bigger problem
everyday? This maybe the monster that bites off godzillas head. I can not believe the RBOCS have not moved at a faster pace, they may not make the switch in time to avoid routine loss of voice access, caused by Internet brownouts.
One things for sure the TELCO's will run into the problem above, or ISP's will give them such a run for the consumer dollars the TELCO's will have to move fast. It's a lot easier to keep a customer than to try and win their business.
Or a miracle could happen and the TELCO's could just WAKE UP!
Try to picture the leaps we will take, having Megabit data access world wide, to anyone who wants it, 10 to 20 years, before it could be a reality for the masses, especially a technology as affordable as DSL will be. Less cost to you, and delayed over a period of time for the TELCO's, so the TELCO's don't have to rush with the expense of installing Fiber to your door step.
The TELCO's will do what the Cable companies were doing, moving Fiber To The Neighborhood (FTTN), and using VDSL to handle the short copper individual point to point Loops. Unlike cable's use HFC and the neighborhood sharing bandwidth with everyone else.
DSL has many advantages, with a market with future revenues beyond most everyone's current comprehension.
The TELCO maneuvers of 1996 can give one a clue, as to how big this is, DSL along with other technologies is the major reason for these TELCO alignments, it boils down to Megabit data Access and the TELCO's want to control it, and entertain you as well. Look out NBC HBO, FOX!
The future of Telecommunications will look vastly different in 10 years, from a telecommunications industry a decade from now, that never saw the use of DSL technology.
Imagine the impact of giving INTEL a Pentium Processor 10 or 20 years ahead of time,1976/1986.
This is close to the advantage the telecommunication's industry has with the deployment of DSL.
It is the technology, that hooked me into posting here since Jan 96. I have stayed off the topic Amati, as I did not want you to view my insight as a prejudice of one DSL stock over another. I'm here because of the future of DSL technology, and this is the best source next to TeleChoice on the web for DSL information, and the news usually hits here first.
We would be fools to think Danny Bierre does not follow this thread, when time allows, this goes for Rupert Baines, and others in the industry, to include employees of Amati.
There are no hurdles in the DSL path, except the deployment on a massive scale. DMT Vs CAP is not a hurdle.
I don't believe I need a summation except: "I hope the above gives the reader some insight into "my prospective" of the immensity and viability of the market for DSL, and the effects it will have on the Telecommunications Industry. "
Therefore my only option in a closing could only be,
I Want My DMT
JW@KSC
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