For the record, I am not short TDFX. To the contrary, against my better judgement, I went long TDFX and am now loosing money. Anyone who has read my posts can put 2 and 2 together to see that not only I am not short TDFX, it would not even make it to my screens as a short. Remember what I said, look for something that is at least 30% overvalued and is in a downtrend to short. I also said that based on my model fair value for TDFX is around $45 (or at least $23 if you use a very conservative model). So add it up for yourself. Second, I suggested selling TDFX (or at least not adding to it) only because it is in a down trend and seems to be resilient to any good news. In other words, I simply said don't catch a falling knife and wait for the trend to at least stabilize before buying it. Why is this so hard to swallow and why is there such a paranoia about shorts bad-mouthing the stock? All the press about how overvalued the internet stocks are has not put a dent on them, so how can a little less than head-over-hill-in-love-with-the-stock remark cause a serious damage? I have not heard nearly enough negatives to even remotely balance the enthusiasm that has surrounds TDFX. And may be that is part of the reason the stock is in a downtrend.
Now that I've said that, Chip I really like your favourite quote (here I jump in the hot water again :D) I think it also applies to the stock market and investors.
Regards,
Sun Tzu |
