Wo! The last time I heard this argument was on the AOL boards about a year ago. The guy who shorted AGPH at that price (about $27) is now, presumably, eating bread for dinners. There is plenty of experience with the manufacture of Viracept. The first tablets were manufactured fiscal Q4 1994. Two million tablets had been manufactured as of the end of fiscal Q3 1996. The target for the end of fiscal Q1 1997 was 50 million tablets. Homework shows that the balance sheet for Q1 was clean, showing only 5.3 million in accounts payable and 5.2 million in accrued liabilities. A hoard of pharmaceutical chemists have rendered judgement that the synthetic processes for Viracept are much simpler than for crix. AGPH has been saying for quite some time that margins will not be a problem.
The epidemic is on-going and expanding. Viracept's NDA submission is planned for "no later than the first calendar quarter of 1997".
I never suggest taking a company's word with respect to progress. However, I often suggest contacting investor relations as a starting point for analysis (Donna Nichols, 619-622-8014, please ask about manufacturing issues with respect to Viracept).
Good luck in all your investments. If you're thinking about shorting AGPH after Hambrecht and Quist, I'd check timing of upcoming presentations at the retrovirus meeting relative to H&Q. I'd also recommend that you forego the use of margin and try to closely monitor side effects ass'd with crix, saq and Abbott's disaster. Phase III trials are phase III trials......... they are blinded, and you're correct.... there have been some nasty surprises. Then again, can you imagine what BCHXF would be if 3-TC were not licensed to Glaxo? That is, there have also been major successes, and AGPH is taking on corporate giants alone. The potential leverage for your buck is pronounced.
If anyone is thinking of shorting AGPH, I'm not saying "don't do it". However, I'd reread this entire thread first. It would be an extreme risk. Just my $0.02.
DISCLAIMER: this is my view this week. :-)
Rick |
